Mid- Week Projections for Davido, Ayra Starr & Asake
After three days of tracking, the early numbers are beginning to reveal the likely trajectory of three of Africa’s biggest albums currently competing for attention: Davido’s Oriade, Ayra Starr’s Starr Girl, and Asake’s M$NEY. TurnTable Charts has monitored and analysed the first three days of streaming activity for each project to develop a possible projection for their respective tracking periods. The early pace of these projects offers an indication of where each album could potentially land by the end of its current tracking week, with the numbers presenting three distinct stories across different stages of an album’s commercial life.
1. Davido — Oriade
3rd week of release \| Projected: 11M–13M
Davido’s ‘Oriadé’ continues to demonstrate the staying power expected from one of Africa’s biggest global stars. Entering its third week, the album is projected to tally between 11 million and 13 million streams. At this stage of an album cycle, maintaining an eight-figure weekly performance becomes more significant as Oriade is no longer benefiting primarily from the curiosity surrounding a new release; its performance is increasingly being sustained by listeners returning to the project, individual songs like B4 B4, Already Falling and I Know Who I Be retaining their relevance, and Davido’s enormous catalogue and fanbase continuing to drive consumption.
2. Ayra Starr — Starr Girl
1st week of release \| Projected: 10M–12M
Ayra Starr’s ‘Starr Girl’ enters its first-week tracking period with an estimated 10 million to 12 million streams. The opening week is fundamentally about conversion: how effectively the initial excitement around the album translates into sustained listening across the full tracklist. A projection above 10 million suggests a strong start for Starr Girl, particularly as the album begins to establish its own identity beyond its pre-release campaign. The bigger question will be whether the project can maintain momentum after the first week, when the natural curiosity surrounding a new album begins to decline. This would also represent the biggest debut week ever for an album by a female artiste in history.
3. Asake — M$NEY
15th week of release \| Projected: 9M–11M
Perhaps the most striking projection of the three belongs to Asake’s M$NEY. Fifteen weeks into its release cycle, the album is still projected to tally between 9 million and 11 million streams. That longevity is significant as its ability to remain close to the 10 million mark this deep into its release speaks to the strength of Asake’s catalogue and the continued consumption of the album beyond its initial moment
